Scenario Planning Frameworks
DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario planning frameworks are analytical tools used to create tactical answers (Tighe, 2019). Used to foresee an organization’s future, successful scenario planning identifies the potential modifications in an atmosphere over time. Moreover, in order to ensure that an organization creates various plans to avoid the unexpected outcome, scenario planning plays a vital role. A synthesis matrix was built based on four scenario-building structures. It is horizontally categorized with four authors and vertically by main points. It is worth mentioning that there are sources which do not cover all main points, hence some cells will be empty. With this matrix, it is easy to thoroughly compare the variations between the four frameworks to be able to determine the most appropriate one to use in planning for the future of the pharmaceutical industry.
Part 1: Scenario Synthesis
Day & Schoemaker (2005)
Godet & Roubelat (1996)
Hussain et al. (2017)
Ramirez et al. (2017)
Synthesis Main Points
•Assesses your company’s need for change by detecting and acknowledging their early-stage weak signals.
•Screens and examines strategic choices by using four criteria: relevance, consistency, likelihood, and transparency.
•Screens and examines your company’s past limitations by using road mapping and scenario planning.
• Instead of looking at the future of your business, examine their strengths and redefine their perceptions.
Applying scenario planning to a business to consider options for the future of their business is not novel. Scenario planning refers to the approach utilized to distinguish and apply a variety of distinct scenarios on company contingencies such that the management’s decisions are astute. Whether it is by assessing your company’s needs by acknowledging their weaknesses in advance (Day & Schoemaker, 2005) or by identifying and analyzing strategic options using such conditions as relevance, consistency, probability, and transparency (Godet & Roubelat, 1996), scenario planning is a technique that may be used for exploration and anticipation of possibilities.
DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures
Knowledge of your company’s constraints and applying road mapping (Hussain et al., 2017) can best equip them for effectiveness in turbulence. Strategic planning can be achieved in different ways. Instead of concentrating on looking forward to the future of your company, look at your company’s strengths to rethink your assumptions (Ramirez et al., 2017). Lastly, there are two key elements of scenario planning: making a reasonable scenario and anticipating what can happen.
Understanding the Signals Early
Determines how your company vision needs to be articulated by asking the right questions and learning from the past. Watch out and do not dismiss the warning signals. In today’s business, one must grasp the “what ifs.” An organization can do so by scanning its peripheral vision (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Another is to define the significant variables and ask the appropriate questions (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). A company can decide to create a roadmap rather than a scenario (Hussain et al., 2017). Rather than predicting the “what ifs,” a company can rephrase its strategy by actively creating probable scenarios (Ramirez et al., 2017).
Strategic Scenario Planning
Reconsiders the firm’s needs and capability. Once the scope is established, it helps define how to tackle and guide the vision by asking the right questions. It asks the right questions by developing critical variables and participating in workshops in the future. It involves professionals working for the company and returning with novel ways to grow the company and mixes scenario planning and technology road mapping; by employing the two methods, it exposes weaknesses in application. Building a hypothesis and posing the right questions is a very important process in defining future thinking.
Strategic scenario planning is vital for any company willing to ride through numerous uncertainties (Ringland, 2010). For a clear peripheral vision during scenario planning, the right open-ended questions need to be posed and the answers have to be concise (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). In addition, when it comes to identifying and evaluating strategic alternatives, a business ought to engage experts to analyze and bring back possible prospects (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Steering clear of past blunders through learning from past blunders so as not to commit them in the future (Hussain et al., 2017) and assessment of weak signals through a focus on what is plausible rather than probable (Ramirez et al., 2017) are applied as methods of scenario planning.
Scenario Planning and Technology Road Mapping
Encourages road mapping and cataloging all your past blind spots like technology, political, and social shifts.
Uses scenario planning and technology road mapping and deals with both methods’ strengths.
Does not encourage scenario planning but hypotheticals. The technology transformation is overemphasized. Scenario planning and technology road mapping are aspects to investigate when planning a company’s future and they are both as important. But both are not always used simultaneously in scenario testing of assumptions. Certain scenario planning welcomes road mapping technology (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). In addition, to capitalizing on scenario planning, technology road mapping is utilized by others to get over their weak areas (Hussain et al., 2017). Even though companies would believe the revolution of technology is overstated, rather than focusing on redefining and perception (Ramirez et al., 2017).
Scenario Planning to Reshape Uncertainty
Make your company’s vision stronger by recognizing the warning signs beforehand. Minimizing uncertainties means learning the market to anticipate and eliminate them. With the integration of the two processes, your company will possess a ‘radar’ for monitoring uncertainties in the long run. Determine things that will not change. Uncertainty cannot be eliminated by illusory forecasting but can be reduced, and decisions can be made on hypothetical futures.
Mastering the art of navigating the uncertainties’ potentialities using scenario planning can ultimately shape an organization’s future (Ringland, 2010).
It can give a company a head start to respond to opportunity or threat (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). It can help a company in eliminating or forestalling uncertainties (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Not to mention, scenario planning can help a company break previous constraints (Hussain et al., 2017). Lastly, scenario planning can allow a company to decide how to enhance areas of concern (Ramirez et al., 2017).
DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures
In attempting to determine which scenario planning framework is most suitable in planning for the future of the pharmaceutical industry, the above synthesis matrix was created.
While the main header provides us with the authors, the side panels hold the summary points of each author on scenario planning.
Its objective was to classify and sort out different views presented by every source in a manner that the best fit choice framework was selected. After evaluating the four sources, it was observed that some of the frameworks distinguished themselves from others. Companies that are working in environments of high change may need highly advanced peripheral vision than companies that are working in stable environments (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Meanwhile, companies who ask the right questions should include identifying key variables and attending future workshops (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Furthermore, companies that identify and learn from their own mistakes can possibly avoid them in the future (Hussain et al., 2017).
Lastly, companies targeting the reasonable and not the probable may even manage to avoid some of the forthcoming obstacles (Ramirez et al., 2017). Such models can perhaps guide a company through short-term and long-term changes if utilized in the right way. Though neither model guarantees full recovery in the future, with the right selection of scenario techniques in position, a company may be able to control how they react to adverse events. Essentially, through developing awareness about the potential of what may occur, leaders begin to identify precursors to troubles. As a result, they can prepare and respond accordingly (Tighe, 2019).
Part 2: Scenario Framework for the Pharmaceutical Industry
On the basis of the assignment this author has been commissioned to undertake a decade-futures look ahead on behalf of MiracleDrugs, it is recommended that Day & Schoemaker’s framework is utilized. Following the reading of the industry discovery summary, the best method for taking control of uncertainty is through defining the scope, asking the right questions, and learning from history.
That is, after setting the vision, the proper questions can be asked so that thinking in the future can begin (Day & Schoemaker, 2005).
Is allocating resources sufficient? Do we need new leadership to drive the company forward? Are the employees adequately trained? How do we learn from previous mistakes? Where are we today?
After presenting the proper questions and answers, the scenario framework will be used.
For any company, learning about their past is a great learning tool when applied appropriately (Day & Schoemaker, 2005).
Looking at the history of the pharmaceutical industry, leaders can see the worst and best performing motivators. Learning from history can also determine why particular motivators outperformed others. Refraining from turning a blind eye to the past helps in showing a company’s path and determining their success (Tighe, 2019). Is the business expanding or declining? Has the business achieved the goals assigned to it a decade ago? Merging all this data from the scope, raising the right questions, and relying on experience will assist in defining how to plan for establishing decade goals. Good planning is needed in order to meet the future, either by enhancing what your business is doing, transforming everything, or maintaining everything the same. Due to the rapid growth of the pharmaceutical industry, Day & Schoemaker’s model is recommended.
DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures
Another reason for the complexities of the fast-growing pharmaceutical industry is what needs to be done to transform.
Sourcing the gaps between the existing and the wanted state of generic drug and medicine producers is the way that leaders begin to talk about the gaps between the two and react strategically to the unknown.
Research has shown that as it stands today, revenue for the Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturing industry declined during the past five years (Kennedy, 2021). Apart from declining revenue, the generic industry has also been characterized by other challenges (Stockman, 2021). Some of those problems are that “generic drugs are a major driver of the rapidly growing cost of drugs overall” (Kennedy, 2021, para. 7).
In addition, most drug companies are facing problems such as changes in price structures, fewer patents, more lawsuits, and so on.
For example, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain is facing shortages, unaffordability, and unequal access to essential drugs due to its overdependence on few producers to meet demand (Kennedy, 2021). Although there are laws and regulations that frame how the drug sector operates today, there are specific companies that may require enhanced exposure to preparing for the unforeseen. Lastly, the use of road maps in the drug industry can identify and classify uncertainties. Road maps are used to present and signify the manner in which the supply chain process operates and particularly where adjustments are needed. Based on industry analysts, there has been a persisting issue of shortages in the industry supply chain (Kennedy, 2021).
With no other producers to make up the shortages when supplies are low, shortages are still an issue. Though this is regrettable, the question is what can leaders do now to prevent shortages in the future?
Through the study of historical data, leaders can review the highs and lows of the supply chain and create roadmaps to help determine a better solution to repair supply chain problems (Stockman, 2021).
Reviewing the supply chain process helps learn how to respond to the “what ifs” and prevent potential crises.
Even though technology has improved, the pharmaceutical industry still faces ongoing challenges. The supply chain continues to fluctuate and deteriorates during the crisis period (Kennedy, 2021). Certain companies outsource their production needs. This becomes a problem too when supply chains cannot meet expected demands and have to change at the last minute.
Road maps play an important role in this business.
It can address the issues at hand in the supply chain process and pinpoint the exact areas of improvement that must be considered by leaders. Lastly, while a scenario framework is not a solution perpetually, when used properly, it is able to steer a company through the unknown. With consideration towards what the future holds, a company is able to position itself to overcome the challenges ahead. In the pharmaceutical industry, applying a scenario planning model to outline a decade’s future could possibly assist in solving the future supply chain issues of most pharmaceutical companies. Road mapping and learning from the past also prepares companies for the future. However, it is the opinion that Day & Schoemaker’s framework would be most appropriate in planning for the future of the pharmaceutical industry.
References
Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H.
(2005).
Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review. Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 164-171. Hussain, M., Khattak, Z., Rizwan, A., Latif, K., & Shim, E. (2017). Scenario planning and the technology roadmap: A combined approach. Asian Social Science, 13(4), 1-13. Kennedy, R. (2021). Industry outlook: 2021 US generic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry – Market research report.
DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures
Ramirez, R., Mukherjee, M., Vezzoli, S., & Maki, L. (2017). Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research”. Futures, 96, 10-20.
Ringland, G. (2010). Scenario planning: Managing for the future (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Stockman, F. (2021). The generic drug industry has a dirty secret. Retrieved from
Tighe, L. (2019). Building the future: Scenario planning for sustainable development. Harvard Business Review
